2012 NBA Playoff Predictions – First Round

First Round

EAST

I think the key word for the NBA’s Eastern Conference Playoffs is consistency. Three of the four matchups really come down to consistent execution of their game plan. Philidelphia, Indiana and Atlanta are all teams who, though talented, will suffer from lack of consistency throughout their series against their opponents. For Philly and Atlanta this will mean first round exits against highly disciplined foes. Indiana is the exception in this bunch. In Orlando Indiana faces a depleted team that lost its star just before playoffs and has no real answer. Orlando is in the playoffs based almost solely on the play of Dwight Howard. Without him, even the Pacers who rely more on enthusiasm than experience, will be able to take care of them in 7 game series.

The last matchup, NY and Miami, is really a David and Goliath series. With all due respect to Amare Stoudemire, Tyson Chandler and Landry Fields, this series is going to be defined by NY’s Carmelo Anthony’s scoring against the the defense and production of the Heat.

1. Chicago v. 8. Philadelphia

This series is certainly youth versus experience. Although Chicago doesn’t have an incredibly old squad, they’re battled hardened (though not embittered) from last year’d playoffs. They’re led by a brilliant general in Tom Thibideau and their troops execute his plan with toughness and, not to be redundant, consistency. There’s just no way that Philly can keep up with Chicago’s toughness and discipline. I do think that Philly can steal a couple games at home. Their ability to rack up points in bunches will overwhelm Chicago a couple of times, who have a propensity to go stretches without being able to find a way to score, especially when Rip and Boozer cool off, as they so often did this year.

Chicago: 4-2

2. Miami v. 7. New York

This could have been a marquee matchup if Jeremey Lin had stayed healthy, but with Lin’s injury and coach Mike Woodson’s lack of imaginative offense, the Knicks have collapsed like a dying star into Carmelo’s point production machine. This has certainly simplified things for the Knicks, since there’s no question who’s in charge or where the points are going to come from, but ultimately that makes them an easy opponent. Like monoculture in food this drastically increases production, but exacerbates vulnerability to disease. In this case the disease is the defense of the Miami Heat. When LeBron James locks down Carmelo in the fourth quarter, where is the Knicks’ offense going to come from? It’s a question that STAT, Chandler and Fields are going to have to find an answer for.

Miami 4-0

3. Indiana v. 6. Orlando

This will probably be the most exciting, least enjoyable matchup in the series. How is that possible you ask? The teams are very closely matched in skill, but neither of them is very good yet. The Pacer’s are an incredibly underrated team, coming in third in the East it’s hard to believe the story didn’t get more attention, but then…it’s the Eastern Conference, which still doesn’t draw much respect. They’re an energetic squad with a lot of feel good potential who have trouble scoring consistently, without a go to scorer to carry them down the stretch. Orlando is almost an identical situation. The surgence (not a word, but it should be) of Nick Anderson as an inside/outside threat this year has certainly been a valuable asset for the Magic, but with Dwight Howard lost to herniated disk in his back, Orlando has no inside threat to draw defenders to paint and leave their three point assassins wide open, neutralizing their staple offense. Losing Howard so late in the year has made it difficult for them to restructure their offense, even for the ever-creative Stan Van Gundy. It makes me wonder if Otis Smith regrets turning Marcin Gortat into Richardson, Turkgolu and Clark?

Indiana 4-2

4. Boston v. 5. Atlanta

Watching the Atlanta Hawks is always the most demoralizing part of the playoffs for me. Thankfully, they rarely make it out of the first round, so I only have to suffer for the first two weeks. Atlanta is possibly the most underachieving team in the NBA. They seem to have oodles of talent that they just can’t do anything with. At the heart of their disappointment is Josh Smith. I honestly believe that Smith has all the tools that LeBron has…but none of the desire. If LeBron has a problem showing up in the fourth quarter of the playoffs (which is like .01 percent of the season, albeit the most important part .01% of the season) Smith has problems showing up at all. He’s an incredibly talented player with all the tools necessary to take over a game, but he just doesn’t seem interested. Instead, he takes ill-advised 17-footers (the least valuable shot in professional basketball, for those who might not know) and looks resentful when the crowd boos him because they don’t appreciate his talent. You know want to know why, Josh? BECAUSE YOU NEVER USE IT! There, that’s out of the way, we can move on.

Boston, on the other hand, has a stable full of tested, committed stars who know what their roles are and function incredibly well together. They also happen to be fulfilling that basketball cliché of ‘peaking at the right time’. They’ve been playing great basketball, and will prove to be an unruly and exhausting opponent for Chicago in the second round. But Boston is so NOT worried about Atlanta that they conceded home court to them at the end of the season because they thought it was more important to rest their starters. That’s how intimidating Atlanta is.

Boston 4-1

WEST

For me the narrative out of the NBA’s Western conference this year is the unexpected. From the 11th hour cancellation of the first Chris Paul trade by David Stern (right after the lockout that was supposed stop stars from leaving small markets), to the give away of Lamar Odom and his unprecedented disappearance in Dallas to the invigorating rise of Jeremy Lin the season was full of surprises. But most unexpectedly of all, was the dominating performance of San Antonio Spurs who put together two 11 games win streaks in a season where no other team had more than 9 in a row. The unexpected rise of the Spurs completely threw off the media’s pre-ordained narrative of the changing of the guard in the West. The rise of the Thunder and the newly fleshed out Clippers shuffling off the Lakers and the Spurs. But the eternally crafty, uber-resilient Spur’s Coach Greg Popovich has again kept the aging Spurs not only in the thick of things, but at the top.

Expecting the unexpected should continue to be the motto of the Western Conference playoffs as the potential for upsets is rife. With Memphis and Dallas playing as low seeds, they both have the potential for upsetting their higher seeded opponents. And expect some exciting series from talented upstarts Utah and Denver.

1. San Antonio v. 8. Utah Jazz

It’s hard to imagine how Utah is going to find a way to win against this incredibly complete Spurs team. Ignored by the media once again (in part through the crafty management of his team by Pop) San Antonio put together an incredibly versatile team with an array of long ranger shooters, including Kawhi Leonard who’s looking like the steal of the draft. Though the Jazz are a tough, talented team, they certainly don’t have the pieces to successfully challenge the well-rounded Spurs. While the Jazz’ Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap cause some minor matchup problems for San Antonio, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobli create *major* matchup problems for the Jazz, problems they won’t be able to overcome.

San Antonio 4-1

2. Oklahoma City v. 7. Dallas

This Southwest grudge match will be the premiere matchup of the first round. Defending champion Dallas matching up against the aspirant for the crown Oklahoma City. Oklahoma is certainly the more talented and deeper team, but ruling out the creaky champs is something you don’t want to do as Dallas showed us so clearly last year. Dirk Nowitzki is still the best at what he does, even if that’s difficult to impossible describe beyond clutch buckets when you need them. Jason Kidd makes up for age in craftiness and Shawn Marion’s defense has gotten him noticed throughout the league this year. OKC is brimming with talent and confidence, though the impact of Metta World Peace’s elbow to James Harden’s head remains to be seen. Still, with scoring champ Kevin Durant, the tempestuous prince of darkness that is Russel Westbrook and the nouveau bruise brothers Serge Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins they certainly won’t go down without a fight.

Dallas 4-3

3. Los Angeles Lakers v. 6. Denver

Like the San Antonio Spurs the LA Lakers were supposed to be on their way out. Given their hard chase for Chris Paul, the lack of engagement from Pau Gasol and the loss of MVP (Most Valuable Pouter) Lamar Odom, the Lakers looked like a team heading for the lottery. But the resurgence of Andrew Bynum, the acquisition of a quick point guard in Ramon Sessions and the iron man performance of Kobe Bryant maintained the Lakers sterling status in the Western Conference. Denver doesn’t have enough to beat the Lakers, but it does have enough to make the series fun with the most exciting players you’ve never heard of in Kenneth Faried, Ty Lawson and JaVale McGee. Expect Denver to steal a couple of games in the rarified air of Denver’s mile high stadium, but not much more than that.

LA Lakers 4-2

4. Memphis v. 5. Los Angeles Clippers

This is easily the matchup with the most questions. The Memphis Grizzlies come into the playoffs as a nicked up four seed, and the Clippers have been up and down all season. Can Zach Randolph come in and play at a high level despite missing so many games due to injury this season? Can Marc Gasol overcome the bone bruise he suffered at the end of the regular season? Can Blake Griffin go more than one game without being hit like an oversized pinata? The answers to those questions will go a long way to determining the winner of this series.

Memphis 4-3

Another Writerly Lament

The trouble with being me is that everything is meaningful. That might sounds fun, a kind of mystical place where each thing I posses and every moment I experience is suffused with a kind of mystical potential that diffuses slowly into the fabric of my existence each time I reach out and touch them. This is not, in fact, the case. The case is that every moment is, in some way or another, a moral referrendum on how I’m living my life. Writing, the most embattled and in some ways important, piece of my life, is no different except in its extreme.

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Self-Portrait Series VII – My Eyes

I have worn glasses for as long as I can remember. I know that this is only the fault of my poor memory, and that before fifth grade I didn’t need glasses. I have no first memory of glasses, but the the image that most clearly captures onslaught of spectacles for me is one from fifth grade, in which I have been saddled with a pair of black-framed reading glasses at least two sizes too large for my head. It is not a pretty picture, this ill-dressed aspiring intellectual trapped in shorts and a purple cougar-emblazoned t-shirt. It is the kind of angst that they write mediocre first novels about in MFA programs across the country.

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How Internet Explorer Taught Me to Name My Demons

One of my least favorite parts of my job is coding for Internet Explorer. Why would I code a website just for Internet Explorer (abbreviated IE), you ask? I’ll tell you! Unbeknownst to most folks every web browser builds (or renders) the code of a web page differently. In some cases these differences are so slight you might not even notice them; this is the best case scenario. The worst case scenario is Internet Explorer 6 (IE6), a primitive web browser by today’s standards that’s still being used by .5% of people browsing the web. That .5% statistic can be misleading, however, since browsers vary distinctly by topic. High technology websites like cNet or Apple won’t have any IE6 hits at all, while LOLCatz and quilting websites tend to have a ton. One of my clients still has around 15% of its traffic coming in on IE6, despite doing everything it can to persuade them to change browsers.

So, despite my desire to quit coding IE6 and save myself, on average 3-5 hours per site I do, I must endure. Thankfully the client has told me that IE6 doesn’t need to be pixel-perfect and only needs to render as a basic website, which is an order I follow as closely as possible. It still irritates me to leave a site in a knowing state of neglect as I often must do with IE6, but IE6 is so full of bugs and my client’s deadlines are so urgent that many things are left imperfect. Still, as I’m unraveling the series of CSS and HTML bugs that IE6 parses in its own quirky way, I often wonder what the people still using this archaic browser think about my web design. I wonder if they wonder why any professional corporation would leave in some of the imperfections that sometimes get passed over. I personally believe that people surfing the web with IE6 generally don’t have a choice of browsers; they’re using antiquated computers on a public library in some podunk town uninterested in that internet fad, or they’re at the mercy of a particularly autocratic and technophobic employer. Still, there must be some folks out there who still don’t know what a web browser is, or why the internet looks so shitty. They are, in short, people without the ability to question their lens.

Our browsers, be they Firefox, Chrome, Safari or IE of any flavor, are essentially the lenses that we use to examine the code of the internet. I don’t want to get too Matrix-y here since I don’t personally know anyone who can read code and compile a visual image in their head. Even as a professional who’s been writing HTML and CSS for years, I still have to see the code in the browser before I can be sure of what’s going to happen once I type it in. So I’m dependent on the browser to see the code for me, and hope that the people who built the browser focused it well and that it renders the code as closely to the vision of the writer as possible. Thankfully there are people advocating for just that: that all web browsers render as equally and clearly as possible.

It is, of course, the same with people. The video I posted the essay from Google was stunning to me the first time I saw it. How, I thought to myself, can these people live in the world, use the internet on a regular basis and NOT know what a browser is? Some of them must use it every single day and yet they’re totally at a loss for how to describe it. A big part of that is simply vocabulary: the pieces of the computer we know how to use are intuitive to us on a private and personal way from years of practice, but we often learn to use computers through trial and error, and not through descriptive instruction, thus the names of the parts of a computer beyond the keyboard, mouse and monitor may as well be in a foreign language. Coaching my mother and various clients through the contrived and awkward vocabulary of the typical Windows desktop is a painful and fruitless process. Trying to get a lawyer’s wife to remember the difference between a shortcut and a folder was truly daunting, never did I dare teach her the subtle differences between the quick launch bar and the icon tray.

The point is that everyone in that video knows how to use a browser to get what they want out of it, but I suspect that the moment they want to do something beyond navigating to a web page directly, buying something online or finding it in a search engine most of them find themselves neck deep in unfamiliar territory and terminology. In the same way, all of us have learned how to get by in life in one way or another. If you’re reading this you have your life together to a degree decent enough to have access to a computer, the internet and the time to read about a web designer trying to bullshit his way through a bad metaphor. That’s saying something; the ability to function on that level doesn’t come easily to everyone.

On the other hand, many of the ways we’ve learned to get by in life have been the same way those folks learned to use their web browser without knowing it was called a web browser: trial and error. And life is a hell of a lot harder to learn to use than a computer is, since in many instances we’ve had to learn to do exactly the opposite of what we were told to do. Most of life is learning to read between the lines, knowing which rules to follow and which ones we can break. All of our families had these rules, most of them weren’t written down, and fewer of them were ever talked about. We learned those rules the hard way, and in doing so we unconsciously formulated the lenses through which see the world. Learning to describe those lenses is key to being able to change things about our lives that we’re unhappy with, and a major part of describing thos lenses is creating our own personal vocabulary to name those lenses. I’d argue that the kind of introspection that has been necessary for healthy change in my life hasn’t been just about passive study of my incredibly unhealthy technique, but about actively creating a name, a container and a level of accountability for that technique.

I have a lot of voices in my head, a lot of incessant, negative, critical, voices in my head that question my choices and actions almost every step of my day. I am plagued by doubt, fear, scarcity and downright loathing. At some point I chose to consider these voices demons, negative influences that were outside of my control. But, as a magical acolyte in training, I also know that the most powerful magic in the human repertoire is naming. Over and over again in fairy lore, from Genesis to Rumplestilskin if you name something it is yours to control. So, in my own act of reclaiming and magical hommage, I opened a text file on my computer and saved it under the name ‘My Own Personal Goetia’, in reference to the Ars Goetia section of the Lesser Key of Solomon.

Every time a negative voice would pop up while I was working, I would open the document on my desktop and describe it, then from that description I would give it a name, and in doing so I named the demons that I was plagued by. Once I was able to name most of them, it was easy to quickly identify them when they appeared, and once I was able to identify them, it was easier to create counter-spells to negate their negative magic. The counter-spells in this case were often just recognition of their demonic influence, or something as simple as an idea that negated their negativity. One of my demons I called ‘Demon of Peak Efficiency’ and described it as ‘The low feeling that I could be working harder if I was really committed to X, X being whatever ideal is handy to make me feel like shit that day.’ To negate the idea of peak efficiency I slowly taught myself that creativity feels inefficient, that inefficiency is necessary to exploration, and that good exploration is inefficient, or rather that the most efficient creativity is through exploration, not through rigid self-criticism or procrastination (never mind that forcing me to deal with the demons is in and of itself highly inefficient; hypocrisy, deception and paradox are inherent in the demonic voice). Here is the complete list of My Own Personal Goetia:

Demon of Infinite Persecution – Always finding a way to moralize about how something I do is wrong, (file sharing, font trading, etc.) usually through fantasy scenarios of trials in courtrooms or being grilled by investigative reporters who I must assume hold all the moral right to do this. This demon also masquerades as an expert in X field, where X is an idea that I’m trying to explore or play with, to shame me for my ignorance and audacity at trying to think in this field when so many other real professionals already have.

Demon of Personal Scarcity – Turns all joys into burdens.

Demon of Inevitable Failure – All good things must end, so you cannot succeed, so why even try? Bonus tool: public failure.

Demon of Horrors Revisited – Apparently at random frightens me throughout the day with the prospect of running into someone I really fear, whom I feel I’ve done wrong to.

Demon of Random Catastrophe – A sudden fear that my wife is lying dead in bed with me and the panic of what I’d do without her. The sudden fear my son will run into the street and be hit by a car. An onset of irrational and sudden panic.

Demon of Peak Efficiency – The low feeling that I could be working harder if I was really committed to X, X being whatever ideal is handy to make me feel like shit that day.

Demon of Expectations Just Out of Reach – always leaves me feeling as though I’m not good enough.

Demon of Nothing to Say: The fear that what I’m writing has no point, purpose or lasting relevance, and is merely a clever observation I’m writing to show other people how smart I am.

Learning to deal with those voices (which I still wrestle with daily, by the way) was only possible once I was able to diagnose the fault in my browser, the flaw in my lense, to recognize that the voices themselves were not a part of the experience of living that I wanted anymore. Once I made that decision, a powerful magic in and of itself, and began to articulate just what it was that plagued me I learned effective ways to deal with the demons. But I can’t dissolve a block or heal a dysfunction until I can clearly articulate what it is; I can’t battle a demon until I know it’s name. Spending enough time with myself, either on paper or in meditation, to clearly hear what it is I want, and then articulate the things that are keeping me from achieving that desire are key to being able to change, to shift, and ultimately I hope, to heal.

Why USA’s Suits is Scrubs 2.0

Yesterday I tweeted “Mad Men + White Collar = Suits” referring to the new show on USA, Suits, but I think my equation was a little off. My first impression upon watching the pilot was that Suits wasn’t much more than a White Collar clone. The two shows share the same network, and given the success of White Collar it wouldn’t be surprsing for the ntweork to try something the same but different. The shows are highly similar: both are procedurals that revolve around a masculine duo of mismatched characters engaging with the law. Suits’ theme appeared to have ditched the White Collar’s goofy dad character Peter Burke (played so well by Tim DeKay), instead opting to split the White Collar’s Neal Caffery (Matt Bomer) character into two different characters. One, Harvey Spectre (Gabriel Macht) an intensely handsome and impeccably dressed uber-lawyer, and the other Mike Ross (Patrick J. Adams) a near-do-well with a photographic memory.

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